歐巴馬對馬英九的啟示

曹添旺╱東吳大學經濟系教授
曾憲政╱台北大學經濟系博士研究生

受到舉世矚目的美國「財政懸崖」,終在迎接2013年的開端,經歐巴馬政府耐心的與共和黨協商,由參議院通過包括「對高收入者增稅、延後自動削減政府支出2個月等等」的避崖法案。避崖法案的通過,立即舒緩了美國總體經濟陷入懸崖的危機;而華爾街道瓊指數也表現出慶祝行情、紅盤作收。美國先前會面臨財政懸崖的主因是,小布希總統時期的減稅刺激經濟法案將在2012年末到期以及自動縮減財政赤字措施無縫接軌的啟動,會讓美國企業減少對勞動雇用、也減少利於總體經濟的實體投資;尤其是自動縮減財政赤字這項機制,更會讓2013年的美國財政赤字呈現陷入懸崖般的急降,這也就是美國聯準會(Fed)主席柏南克為何將這稱作是財政懸崖的原因。歐巴馬在這次的財政懸崖爭議中,堪稱是大贏家;歐巴馬政府最後能讓共和黨願意站在美國的立場,支持僅讓美國的富人(個人年收入高於40萬美元、家庭高於45萬美元的民眾)增稅、並延長與持續相關社福照顧及醫療支出,初步建構出「公平正義」的經濟輪廓。

反觀台灣,財政面臨龐大國債的威脅,且馬總統自2008年5月上任至今,已舉債1兆多,其債務的累積速度超過了陳水扁以及李登輝的時期,同時在經濟景氣未明確復甦的2011年為公務人員加薪,更在2012年連任之際,強推油電雙漲、證所稅、健保補充保費等措施,且不理會調升基本工資的建議。讓百業蕭條、勞工失業、階級對立、違逆公平正義、財政置身懸崖,凡此都顯示馬英九不及歐巴馬。追根究柢,當今台灣的經濟危機,在於馬英九全然信任方向過時且錯誤的思維,對財政惡化與社會不公束手無策。枉費台灣人民給他連任且國會過半的改革契機,徒增人民的傷感及怨懟。

為了有效檢討當前的軍公教及勞工保險退撫制度、龐大國債、稅制與財政劃分不公及國營企業改革等問題,廣邀在野人士集思廣益,召開國是會議也許是馬英九應認真思考的方向。這正是歐巴馬對馬英九的重要啟示。

※本文刊登於2013.01.18自由時報自由廣場〈馬英九走在懸崖上〉http://www.libertytimes.com.tw/2013/new/jan/18/today-o8.htm,此為原稿全文。

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