當美國對台軍售只是一場「交易」時

黃偉峰(中研院歐美所副研究員;澄社社員)

日前美國川普政府終於向國會通知14.2億美元的對台軍售,包括預警雷達、反輻射飛彈、魚雷和標二飛彈組件等。美國參議院軍委會決議要求美國國防部執行美台軍艦互訪,突破1979年以來美台兩軍艦未曾互訪對方港口的前例。從任何角度,這兩項消息對台灣來說都是好消息。一掃近幾個月坊間懷疑川普政府是否因北韓而遷就中國,延遲甚至擱置軍售台灣的疑慮。然而這項軍售對川普總統本人而言到底是一場「交易」(Transaction)還是一項「承諾」(Commitment)呢?吾寧可相信這項軍售是美國政府對台灣安全承諾的具體展現,也希望川普政府持續售予台灣新一代武器。畢竟「承諾」只有在一系列的軍售行動與深化軍事交流中才能得到「證實」。而「交易」只不過是銀貨兩訖一瞬間的表象,賣方雖有售後服務,但畢竟售後服務只不過是「生意」的一環。買方必須自負後果。

美國信守對台安全承諾是建築在其「台灣關係法」的法律義務之上,也端視台灣是否有自我防衛的決心。簡單的說,「台灣關係法」並沒有要求美國政府必須承擔防衛台灣的責任。也沒有保證台灣安全的義務。但該法要求美國協助台灣提升自我防衛的能力。因此美國政府軍售台灣不僅是一場「交易」,而且是其法律義務。這項義務隱含某種條件式的安全承諾。意即台灣必須有自我防衛的意願、決心和行動。

尤其是川普本人在競選期間已批評美國各地的盟友沒有編列足夠的國防預算和肩負自我防衛責任。此外,五月川普訪問北約時並未重申美國對歐洲盟友共同防禦的承諾。雖然稍後六月白宮記者會上,川普承諾履行北約第五條的共同防禦責任,但他同時表明北約盟友必須負擔更多國防經費,提升自我防衛能力。換言之,川普總統的想法是美國只有在盟友善盡防衛責任的情況下才有義務履行美國的安全承諾。惟這種想法是有違北約共同防禦的條約精神。蓋因條約並未明訂任何條件去啟動共同防禦條款。

儘管如此,川普當家的思維,及其悍然退出巴黎公約的舉動,都讓外界質疑美國是否信守國際條約的承諾。復又,川普本人在接起蔡英文總統道賀電話後,曾推文表示台灣購買美國不少武器,難道他接一通台灣的道賀電話都不行嗎?顯然川普非常在乎美國對台軍售,但他對於美國長期地緣戰略利益下所做的安全承諾可能不甚理解,或許他也不在乎。他所在乎的是美國在全球各地的安全承諾及協防措施是否得到盟友互惠的「回報」。果是如此,則美國對台軍售對川普本人而言可能只是一場「交易」或是其全球交易的一環節。

中國雖然例行性的抗議美國對台軍售,但其抗議的不是美國售台武器的「交易」,而是反對美國持續對台灣的安全承諾,阻礙其統一大業。如果上述分析是對的,則台灣應該非常小心的應對川普政府的對台軍售。首先,台灣朝野應該不分黨派展現自我防衛的決心。就此軍售案應迅速完成採購。避免任何延誤讓川普總統質疑台灣的自我防衛意圖。其次,台灣社會應及早辯論當前所面臨的安全威脅及挑戰,讓全民都有敵我意識,支持國防建設,展現捍衛家園的決心。第三凝聚全民共識使台灣的國防預算能早日提升至3%GDP。第四,深化美台軍事交流,且審度防衛需求,持續向美國提出武器採購清單,尋求回復常態化的軍售格局。讓美國「持續」對台軍售的交易成為其履行「台灣關係法」安全承諾的具體展現。

(本文以「美國對台軍售的交易?承諾?」為題刊登於7/3自由電子報)

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